UL MUST win vs USF for bowl bid?

I have been looking at UL's chances of getting a bowl bid if UL goes 6-6 this season, and quite frankly, it is NOT good. I think UL MUST reach 7 wins to go to a bowl game this year.

Before I explain why I think that, let's step back and look at the six BCS conference bowl tie-in's. Including the BCS bowl game, but not the BCS champ game.

Big East: 5 bowl games
Pac-10: 6 bowl games
Big 12: 8 bowl games
Big 10: 7 bowl games
SEC: 8 bowl games
ACC: 8 bowl games

So that accounts for 42 of the total of 62 spots from the 31 total post season bowl games played, NOT including the BCS championship game, of course.

Given those tie-in's right now it looks like from the Big East 4 teams are already sitting with 7 or more wins, 100% assuring themselves of a post-season bowl somewhere. Those teams are, (in no order), WVU, UConn, UC, and USF. And right now Rutgers is ahead of UL in the overall standing with a 6-4 record and only has to play Pitt and UL to finish the season.

The best shot that UL has of going to a post-season bowl game though, may NOT be in their control. If RU beats Pitt on saturday, and moves to a 7-4 record, even if they lose to UL, if UL does not have 7 wins, then UL will NOT get a Big East post season bowl bid, because of the NCAA and Big East conference rule that stipulates that all bowl tie-in bids MUST be filled by a team with 7 or more wins before a team with only 6 wins can be considered.

That means that the game vs USF this saturday for UL is an absolute must win game for the Cards. Or, the Cards have to hope that Pitt somehow finds a way to beat Rutgers on the Scarlet Knights home field, or UL's post-season bowl chances are all but zero.

But let's say that UL does finish the season 6-6, and that RU finishes 7-5 and UL does not get one of the 5 BE bowl game bids.

Is there any chance that UL might get an "at-large" bid to a bowl game somewhere? The answer is yes, but that is a very slim hope.

The best chance, I think that UL has of getting any type of "at large" bid to a bowl game if they are only 6-6 is IF one of the other conferences is unable to fill all of their bowl slot tie-in's by not having enough bowl eligible teams. The problem is, as of right now, there are three other conferences that even have a chance at finishing without enough bowl eligible teams. The Pac-10, the ACC and the Big-12. However, there is a wrench in that argument. The Big-10 with only 7 bowl tie-in's have a total of ten currently bowl eligible teams. Which leaves the Big-10 looking for a possible bowl berth for 3 of their teams. AND the SEC with 8 bowl tie-in's also have a total of ten currently bowl eligible teams. Even if you figure that the SEC and the Big-10 will both get two teams playing in the BCS bowl games, that still leaves 3 teams from those conferences, (1 from the SEC and 2 from the Big-10), that will be looking also for an "at-large" bowl bid somewhere.

The least likely conference to finish without any bowl eligible teams, is the ACC. With 8 bowl game tie-in's, the ACC is sitting with 7 current bowl eligible teams. However, both NC State and Maryland will play each other the last game of the season, and with both teams currently sitting at 5-5, one of them WILL finish at least 6-6 on the season so that fills all of their slots.

With 6 bowl game tie-in's, the PAC-10 is sitting with only 5 current bowl eligible teams in the conference. But UCLA, (currently 5-5, like UL), has two games remaining with both of those games against two top 11 teams in form of Oregon and USC. So it is VERY possible that the PAC-10 would not be able to fill all of their bowl slots. (There is an outside shot that Washington State may get to bowl eligibility, but that is a VERY long shot.) As a result, the PAC-10 could end up 1 short on their tie-in's. Which bowl may open up? Probably the Armed Services bowl, which pits the #6 picked PAC-10 team against a MWC opponent. Which at this point, looks like it would be Utah. Bowl executives are not real keen on rematching teams from the regular season, unless it has some sort of major mass TV market appeal. And let's face it, UL vs Utah does not grab TV headlines. If the MWC opponent does turn out to be some other MWC team, then MAYBE they might consider UL. But probably not, only because UL's record would be so poor, compared to other matchups they could get that might have more "regional" appeal, since it is played in Fort Worth, TX. And I think that with the Big-10 looking for a home for some of their schools, I would look for the Big-10 to make a play here. Especially with the PAC-10 and Big-10 relationship.

The Big-12 is like the ACC right now. While the Big-12 has only 6 eligible teams to fill 8 slots, both Kansas St and Oklahoma St look like they will get to 6 wins. Especially Ok-St since they play an awful Baylor team as one of their last two games. K-State would be the one real question mark out of the B-12, but again, with the SEC and the B-10 looking for a home for one of their 3 member schools, UL is probably out of luck here. And completely out of options.

I just do NOT see any set of circumstances where a 6-6 UL team gets a bowl bid this season. UL's only chance to get a bowl bid, I think is to win BOTH of their last two games vs USF and RU.

Which means then that this saturday's game vs the South Florida Bulls in Tampa is an absolute MUST win scenario.